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Showing posts from February, 2019

Correlations in Oil and Currencies

Economic diversity shows a greater impact on underlying currencies than absolute export numbers. When a country’s principal export is oil or a commodity, its  currency exchange rate  tends to track the global price of that export. When the price rises, so do the exchange rate. The rising global price tends to attract inward investment and resources to the extractive industry, while other export industries struggle due to the high exchange rate – a phenomenon known as “Dutch disease” in which the economy becomes increasingly dependent on its extractive industries. When the prices of  oil and commodities  fall, the currency exchange rates of exporting countries fall in tandem. If the dollar weakens, crude oil prices should rise since oil is priced in dollars. If the dollar is cheaper, purchasers of crude can convert their local currencies into the dollar-denominated crude at a cheaper exchange rate, thus buying crude oil at a cheaper level based solely on the exchange rate. The sh